Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
